NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:NFL playoff picture Week 10: Lions stay out in front of loaded NFC field

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Thursday's game or Saturday's, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 5.

Here's where things stand with Week 10 of the 2024 season heading into Monday night:

AFC playoff picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0), AFC West leaders: Though they're aiming for the league's first Super Bowl three-peat, there are definitely some smoke and mirrors involved in their undefeated start. Be that as it may, K.C. is two clear of the field in the loss column as it tries to ensure the path to Super Bowl 59 will once again run through Arrowhead. Remaining schedule: at Bills, at Panthers, vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos

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2. Buffalo Bills (8-2), AFC East leaders: They've won five straight and a fifth consecutive division title is practically a foregone conclusion. But if they want a viable shot at home-field advantage, it's almost incumbent that they beat the Chiefs in Week 11. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, BYE, vs. 49ers, at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), AFC North leaders: The division has shaped up as a two-team race between them and Baltimore, with both meetings still to come. But the Steelers might yet capture much bigger prizes. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Browns, at Bengals, vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

4. Houston Texans (6-4), AFC South leaders: They've got a few issues yet to work through, primarily those that are injury related. But they should still cruise to a second straight division championship. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Titans, at Jaguars, BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3), wild card No. 1: Their defensive issues are apparent. But the offense is so dominant, Baltimore could easily work its way up to the No. 2 seed. However the Ravens' Week 1 loss to the Chiefs makes for an even steeper uphill climb to the No. 1 spot. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Chargers, vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3), wild card No. 2: Their defense has been pretty tough. Their schedule has been anything but – though that's about to change. However the Bolts are starting to build a nice pad between themselves and the clubs chasing them. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, vs. Ravens, at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (5-5), wild card No. 3: If they'd held on to beat the Chiefs, they would have done several teams favors, including themselves. But the Broncos lost the game – and the opportunity to take a two-game lead over their nearest pursuers. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Raiders, vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (4-6), in the hunt: New QB1 Joe Flacco hasn't been able to stop a three-game slide. But they get a shot at the Broncos down the road. Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Lions, at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6), in the hunt:QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja'Marr Chase weren't able to stop a three-game slide to start the season. But they get a shot at the Broncos down the road. (The Colts currently have a better conference record than Cincy but have also played more of their AFC games.) Remaining schedule: at Chargers, BYE, vs. Steelers, at Cowboys, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers

10. New York Jets (3-7), in the hunt: Technically, they have a shot to end the league's longest playoff drought, which dates to 2010. A Week 4 loss to Denver is problematic. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, BYE, vs. Seahawks, at Dolphins, at Jaguars, vs. Rams, at Bills, vs. Dolphins

11. New England Patriots (3-7), in the hunt: Technically, they have a shot to revive their dynastic ways, which seemingly died five years ago. A Week 1 win at Cincinnati could come in handy. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Colts, BYE, at Cardinals, at Bills, vs. Chargers, vs. Bills

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NFC playoff picture

1. Detroit Lions (8-1), NFC North leaders: Even had they lost Sunday night, they hold tiebreaker advantages over the Eagles and Vikings ... which could yet prove quite helpful down the line. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

2. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2), NFC East leaders: Sunday's smackdown of the Cowboys allowed them to leapfrog Washington for first place. But that could revert back after Thursday night's meeting. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders, at Rams, at Ravens, vs. Panthers, vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Atlanta Falcons (6-4), NFC South leaders: They might rue Sunday's loss to the sliding Saints at some point. But a season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a three-game lead in the division. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE, vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

4. Arizona Cardinals (6-4), NFC West leaders: Winners of four straight, their bye doesn't necessarily come at the ideal time. The Cards' 2-0 record in divisional games serves them well; their 3-3 mark in NFC games won't help them in the tiebreaker department with Atlanta (6-2). Remaining schedule: BYE, at Seahawks, at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

5. Minnesota Vikings (7-2), wild card No. 1: Their longship has been taking on water since a 5-0 start, though they escaped Jacksonville with a victory Sunday. The upcoming games seem forgiving, but the Vikes' path will get progressively tougher down the stretch. Remaining schedule: at Titans, at Bears, vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Washington Commanders (7-3), wild card No. 2: Whether or not they reclaim the NFC East lead from Philly on Thursday, the Commanders do seem to have an easier lineup to contend with the rest of the way, one that might keep them in contention for the No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: at Eagles, vs. Cowboys, vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

7. Green Bay Packers (6-3), wild card No. 3: Hopefully the week off helped battered QB Jordan Love as the Pack readies for the stretch drive – one that could bring a wide variance of outcomes. Remaining schedule: at Bears, vs. 49ers, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

8. San Francisco 49ers (5-4), in the hunt: RB Christian McCaffrey's return could be the needed spark for a team that's finished strongly in recent years. However a 1-2 record in NFC West games could prove a hindrance. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Packers, at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

9. Los Angeles Rams (4-4), in the hunt: Beat Miami on Monday night, and they'll move up a spot thanks to their Week 3 defeat of the Niners. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Patriots, vs. Eagles, at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

10. Chicago Bears (4-5), in the hunt: A three-game skid suggests they might not be in the hunt much longer – especially given what they're about to face. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Lions, at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers

11. Seattle Seahawks (4-5), in the hunt: A two-game skid suggests they might not be in the hunt much longer – especially given what they're about to face. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Cardinals, at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), in the hunt: A three-game skid suggests they might not be in the hunt much longer – yet if they can get key players like WR Mike Evans back after the week off, the opportunity is there to have a strong kick to the finish line. Remaining schedule: BYE, at Giants, at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.