SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Hurricane forecasters on alert: November storm could head for Florida

The SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center2024 Atlantic hurricane season may not be finished with the U.S., even after five hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast and damages estimated at more than $120 billion.

A tropical wave moving westward in the Caribbean and is likely to become a tropical storm over the next couple of days, with a 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning. It would be the season's 18th named storm and is in line for the name Sara.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, the hurricane center said.

At least one computer model used to help forecast hurricanes indicates the potential Sara could become a major hurricane threatening the Florida coast next week, but whether it heads into the Gulf of Mexico remains to be seen, with several factors in play. Meanwhile heavy rains are forecast in Jamaica over the next day or so.

More:Storm tracker: System in the Caribbean could become Hurricane Sara by next week

An official forecast track won’t be available until the disturbance becomes an organized tropical storm with a defined center of circulation. However, the hurricane center said Wednesday that "further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend."

The storm could take advantage of “some unusually conducive late-season conditions” to strengthen into the early part of next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert with WPLG-TV in South Florida, in his daily update on Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been at a record high this week, according to ocean heat content graphs kept by Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Lowry and other meteorologists say two key issues will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the U.S. By early next week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly northwestward, but just when it turns could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system.

"If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, the track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States," AccuWeather said Tuesday.

For now, the chaotic nature of the model tracks indicates "high uncertainty" in the forecast, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken it. However, he said, if it remains offshore in the Caribbean, chances increase that it grows stronger and is steered into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to forecast potential intensity suggest a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status, with winds over 111 mph, and one suggests it could reach Category 4 status, according to the website Tropicaltidbits.com, maintained by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

If a sixth hurricane were to make landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the record from 1886 for the most landfalls in a season on the U.S. Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. At five so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most Gulf hurricane landfalls on record in one season.

November hurricanes are rather unusual. Only three hurricanes have previously affected the U.S. or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985, according to NOAA records.

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A busy 2024 hurricane season

So far, 2024 is the 11th most active season based on the number of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy since meteorologists started observing hurricanes by satellites in 1966, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. The cyclone energy index calculates the total energy of a season by the frequency of storms and the maximum wind speed of each hurricane over its lifespan.

Among the more active seasons are 2005 and 2020, the two years when the hurricane center ran out of its first list of names and turned to a backup list, according to Klotzbach. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred this century.

The 2024 season has pretty closely matched the pre-season predictions of both NOAA and Colorado State University for hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only named storms are lagging below those seasonal outlooks. Although the season started out busy, including a record-breaking Beryl, a lull in August surprised forecasters, but 12 named storms have developed since early September.

Landfalling hurricanes in 2024

Beryl – Matagorda County, Texas

Debby – Taylor County, Florida, and South Carolina

Francine – Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana

Helene – Taylor County, Florida

Milton – Sarasota County, Florida

Read more about the 2024 season

• Hurricane Beryl broke records
• How water temperatures in one ocean affects hurricanes in another
• Hurricanes keep battering Florida's Big Bend
• Hurricane Katrina's storm surge dangers recounted as Helene approaches

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.